Hey everybody! The year is winding down and the nominations will be announced on January 22nd. With most of the critic groups across the country announcing their winners and the major preliminary awards waiting to announce theirs, it’s time for another round of predictions. The Oscars have also released shortlists for a few of the smaller categories, including the short film categories, so I can now offer my thoughts on that. As usual, this will be a mixture of what has been generating considerable buzz and this writer’s (Justin Zarian) personal preferences. If you agree or disagree with anything on the list, please feel free to make your thoughts known!

For this second to last round of predictions, I will eliminate Dark Horses.

Best Picture

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Green Book
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Leave No Trace
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Runners-Up

• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Cold War
• First Reformed
• Mary Poppins Returns
• A Quiet Place

Best Director

My Current Picks

• Bradly Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
• Debra Granik for Leave No Trace
• Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
• Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Runners-Up

• Damien Chazelle for First Man
• Peter Farrelly for Green Book
• Tamara Jenkins for Private Life
• Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
• Adam McKay for Vice

Best Actor

My Current Picks

• Christian Bale for Vice
• Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Ethan Hawke for First Reformed
• Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen for Green Book

Runners-Up

• Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate
• Ryan Gosling for First Man
• Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased
• Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here
• John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman

Best Actress

My Current Picks

• Glenn Close for The Wife
• Toni Colette for Hereditary
• Olivia Colman for The Favourite
• Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runners-Up

• Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
• Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns
• Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade
• Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
• Rosemund Pike for A Private War

Best Supporting Actor

My Current Picks

• Mahershala Ali for Green Book
• Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
• Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott for A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runners-Up

• Brian Tyree Henry for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Russell Hornsby for The Hate U Give
• Hugh Grant for Paddington 2
• Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther
• Sam Rockwell for Vice

Best Supporting Actress

My Current Picks

• Amy Adams for Vice
• Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Thomasin McKenzie for Leave No Trace
• Emma Stone for The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz for The Favourite

Runners-Up

• Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place
• Claire Foy for First Man
• Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased
• Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots
• Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians

Best Original Screenplay

My Current Picks

• Eighth Grade
• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma

Runners-Up

• Cold War
• Private Life
• A Quiet Place
• Sorry to Bother You
• Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Current Picks

• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• The Death of Stalin
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Leave No Trace
• A Star Is Born

Runners-Up

• BlacKkKlansman
• Crazy Rich Asian
• First Man
• The Hate U Give
• Mary Queen of Scots

Best Cinematography

My Current Picks

• Cold War
• The Favourite
• First Man
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Roma

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• A Star Is Born
• Suspiria
• Widows

Best Production Design

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Crazy Rich Asians
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Roma

Best Costume Design

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Colette
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Film Editing

My Current Picks

• The Favourite
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Runners-Up

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• Green Book
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Best Sound Mixing

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• First Man
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• A Quiet Place
• A Star Is Born

Runners-Up

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Ready Player One
• Roma

Best Sound Editing

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• First Man
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Runners-Up

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Deadpool 2
• The Incredibles 2
• Ready Player One
• A Star is Born

Best Visual Effects

My Current Picks

• Avengers: Infinity War
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

Runners-Up

• Ant-Man and the Wasp
• Black Panther
• Christopher Robin
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
• Welcome to Marwen

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• Stan and Ollie
• Vice

Runners-Up

• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Suspiria

Best Original Score

My Current Picks

• BlacKkKlansman
• First Man
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Isle of Dogs
• Mary Poppins Returns

Runners-Up

• Avengers: Infinity War
• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• A Quiet Place

Best Original Song

My Current Picks

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”)
• Black Panther (“All the Stars”)
• Boy Erased (“Revelation”)
• Mary Poppins Returns (“The Place Where Lost Things Go”)
• A Star Is Born (“The Shallow”)

Runners-Up

• Dumplin’ (“Girl in the Movies”)
• The Hate U Give (“We Won’t Move”)
• Mary Poppins Returns (“Trip a Little Light Fantastic”)
• RBG (“I’ll Fight”)
• Sorry to Bother You (“OYAHYTT”)

Best Animated Feature

My Current Picks

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Runners-Up

• Dr. Seuss’s The Grinch
• Early Man
• Lu Over the Wall
• Smallfoot
• Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

My Current Picks

• Free Solo
• Minding the Gap
• RBG
• Three Identical Strangers
• Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Runners-Up

• Crime + Punishment
• Dark Money
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• Komunia
• Shirkers

Best Foreign Language Feature

My Current Picks

• Cold War
• The Guilty
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• Shoplifters

Runners-Up

• Ayka
• Birds of Passage
• Burning
• Capernaum

Best Animated Short

My Current Picks

• Animal Behavior
• Bao
• Bilby
• Bird Karma
• Weekends

Runners-Up

• Age of Sail
• Late Afternoon
• Lost & Found
• One Small Step
• Pepe Le Morse

Best Documentary Short

My Current Picks

• End Games
• Lost Commandos
• My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
• Period. End of Sentence
• Zion

Runners-Up

• 63 Boycott
• Black Sheep
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Women of the Gulag

Best Live-Action Short

My Current Picks

• Caroline
• Detainment
• Fauve
• Icare
• Marguerite

Runners-Up

• Chuchotage
• May Day
• Mother
• Skin
• Wale