Things are moving quickly with the Oscar season. The first major precusor winners are being announced over the next few weeks, which will help shape the race going forward significantly. So before we see which movies get lifted up in clout or take a beating as we head towards the end of the year, here is another round of my predictions on who could end up on the main shortlist. As usual, short film categories will not be predicted yet because I have no freaking clue what is eligible yet.

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Best Picture

My Current Picks

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Green Book
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Leave No Trace
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice
• Widows

Runners-Up

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• Cold War
• Eighth Grade
• Private Life

Dark Horses

• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots
• The Mule
• A Quiet Place

Best Director

My Current Picks

• Damien Chazelle for First Man
• Bradly Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
• Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
• Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk

Runners-Up

• Peter Farrelly for Green Book
• Debra Granik for Leave No Trace
• Tamara Jenkins for Private Life
• Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
• Adam McKay for Vice

Dark Horses

• Ryan Coogler for Black Panther
• Clint Eastwood for The Mule
• Marielle Heller for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Rob Marshall for Mary Poppins Returns
• Pawl Pawlikowski for Cold War

Best Actor

My Current Picks

• Christian Bale for Vice
• Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Ethan Hawke for First Reformed
• Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen for Green Book

Runners-Up

• Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate
• Ryan Gosling for First Man
• Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased
• Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here
• Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun

Dark Horses

• Clint Eastwood for The Mule
• Ben Foster for Leave No Trace
• Lucas Hedges for Ben Is Back
• John C. Reilly for Stan and Ollie
• John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman

Best Actress

My Current Picks

• Glenn Close for The Wife
• Toni Colette for Hereditary
• Olivia Colman for The Favourite
• Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runners-Up

• Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
• Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns
• Rosemund Pike for A Private War
• Julia Roberts for Ben Is Back
• Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots

Dark Horses

• Viola Davis for Widows
• Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade
• Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex
• Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
• Carey Mulligan for Wildlife

Best Supporting Actor

My Current Picks

• Mahershala Ali for Green Book
• Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
• Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott for A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runners-Up

• Brian Tyree Henry for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Russell Hornsby for The Hate U Give
• Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther
• Daniel Kaluuya for Widows
• Sam Rockwell for Vice

Dark Horses

• Steve Carrell for Vice
• Paul Giamatti for Private Life
• Nicholas Hoult for The Favourite
• Jonathan Pryce for The Wife
• Dominic West for Colette

Best Supporting Actress

My Current Picks

• Claire Foy for First Man
• Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone for The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
• Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians

Runners-Up

• Amy Adams for Vice
• Marina de Tavira for Roma
• Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased
• Thomasin McKenzie for Leave No Trace
• Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots

Dark Horses

• Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place
• Linda Cardellini for Green Book
• Kayli Carter for Private Life
• Elizabeth Debicki for Widows
• Sissy Spacek for The Old Man and the Gun

Best Original Screenplay

My Current Picks

• Eighth Grade
• The Favourite
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Vice

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Private Life
• A Quiet Place
• Roma
• Sorry to Bother You

Dark Horses

• Ben Is Back
• Blindspotting
• Cold War
• Hereditary
• The Mule

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Current Picks

• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• The Hate U Give
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Leave No Trace
• A Star Is Born

Runners-Up

• BlacKkKlansman
• Crazy Rich Asian
• First Man
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Widows

Dark Horses

• Black Panther
• Boy Erased
• The Mule
• The Old Man and the Gun
• Wildlife

Best Cinematography

My Current Picks

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• First Man
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

Runners-Up

• Black Panther
• Cold War
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Widows

Dark Horses

• Green Book
• The Sisters Brothers
• Suspiria
• A Quiet Place
• Vice

Best Production Design

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Colette
• Crazy Rich Asians
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• If Beale Street Could Talk

Dark Horses

• BlacKkKlansman
• The Mortal Engines
• The Nutcracker and the Four Reams
• Outlaw King
• A Star Is Born

Best Costume Design

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Colette
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Dark Horses

• BlacKkKlansman
• First Man
• Green Book
• On the Basis of Sex
• A Star Is Born

Best Film Editing

My Current Picks

• The Favourite
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Runners-Up

• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• Green Book
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Widows

Dark Horses

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Leave No Trace
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• The Mule
• A Quiet Place

Best Sound Mixing

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• First Man
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• A Quiet Place
• A Star Is Born

Runners-Up

• Avengers: Infinity War
• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Incredibles 2
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

Dark Horses

• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Bumblebee
• The Mule
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• First Man
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

Runners-Up

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Deadpool 2
• The Incredibles 2
• Ready Player One
• A Star is Born

Dark Horses

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Bumblebee
• Mary Poppins Returns
• The Mule
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

My Current Picks

• Annihilation
• Avengers: Infinity War
• Bumblebee
• First Man
• Ready Player One

Runners-Up

• Ant-Man and the Wasp
• Aquaman
• Black Panther
• Solo: A Star Wars Story
• Welcome to Marwen

Dark Horses

• Christopher Robin
• Deadpool 2
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• Pacific Rim: Uprising
• A Quiet Place

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling

My Current Picks

• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Vice

Runners-Up

• Border
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

Dark Horses

• Colette
• First Man
• A Star Is Born

Best Original Score

My Current Picks

• BlacKkKlansman
• First Man
• Green Book
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• Mary Poppins Returns

Runners-Up

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• Incredibles 2
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

Dark Horses

• Colette
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
• Isle of Dogs
• Suspiria
• Wildlife

Best Original Song

My Current Picks

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”)
• Black Panther (“All the Stars”)
• Free Solo (“Gravity”)
• Mary Poppins Returns (“The Place Where Lost Things Go”)
• A Star Is Born (“The Shallow”)

Runners-Up

• A Star Is Born (“I’ll Never Love Again”)
• Boy Erased (“Revelation”)
• The Hate U Give (“We Won’t Move”)
• Mary Poppins Returns (“Trip a Light Fantastic”)
• RBG (“I’ll Fight”)

Dark Horses

• Green Book (“I Count on Me”)
• On the Basis of Sex (“Time for Change”)
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (“A Place Called Slaughter Race”)
• A Star Is Born (“Always Remember Us This Way”)
• Widows (“The Big Unknown”)

Best Animated Feature

My Current Picks

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Runners-Up

• Early Man
• Lu Over the Wall
• Ruben Brandt, Collector
• Smallfoot
• Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Dark Horses

• Dr. Seuss’s The Grind
• Fireworks
• Liz and the Blue Bird
• Night Is Short, Walk On Girl
• Tito and the Birds

Best Documentary Feature

My Current Picks

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• RBG
• Three Identical Strangers
• Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Runners-Up

• Crime + Punishment
• Dark Money
• Minding the Gap
• Shirkers
• They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead

Dark Horses

• Amazing Grace
• Jane Fonda in Five Acts
• Love Gilda
• On Her Shoulders
• Quincy

Best Foreign Language Feature

My Current Picks

• Capernaum
• Cold War
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• Shoplifters

Runners-Up

• Border
• Burning
• The Guilty
• I Am Not a Witch
• Sunset

Dark Horses

• Birds of Passage
• Dogman
• Donbass
• A Twelve-Year Night
• The Wild Pear Tree

All Short Categories

TBD