Oscar Nomination Predictions Round #2

New year, new predictions. We’ve seen several critic awards occur, all the major shortlists have been unveiled and all the movies in serious contention have been screened to critics. There are still a few weeks to go before January 23rd announcement, but it doesn’t hurt to try reading the Academy’s mind again.

So with all that preamble done, here are my up to date predictions for the race. Certain categories will reflect the current shortlist of nominees eligible (i.e. make-up and hairstyling, visual effects, etc.). And I have also narrowed down the runners-up and long shot categories as I prepare to solidify my predictions for my third and final round of predictions before the announcement.

Best Picture

My Current Picks (if there are ten)

Blade Runner 2049

Call Me by Your Name


The Florida Project

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri



Darkest Hour

The Disaster Artist

Phantom Thread


Long Shots

The Big Sick

The Greatest Showman

Molly’s Game


Best Director

My Current Picks

Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird

Luca Guadagino for “Call Me By Your Name

Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk

Steven Spielberg for “The Post



Martin McDonagh for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Jordan Peele for “Get Out

Sean Baker for “The Florida Project


Long Shots

Paul Thomas Anderson for “Phantom Thread

Denis Villeneuve for “Blade Runner 2049

Joe Wright for “Darkest Hour


Best Actor

My Current Picks

Timothy Chalamet for “Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Kaluuya for “Get Out

Daniel Day-Lewis for “Phantom Thread

James Franco for “The Disaster Artist

Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour



Jake Gyllenhaal for “Stronger

Tom Hanks for “The Post

Denzel Washington for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”


Long Shot

Andrew Garfield for “Breathe

Hugh Jackman for “The Greatest Showman

Jeremy Renner for “Wind River


Best Actress

My Current Picks

Sally Hawkins for “The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie for “I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan for “Lady Bird

Meryl Streep for “The Post



Jessica Chastain for “Molly’s Game

Judi Dench for “Victoria and Abdul

Michelle Williams for “All the Money in the World


Long Shots

Nicole Kidman for “The Beguiled

Diane Kruger for “In the Fade

Emma Stone for “Battle of the Sexes


Best Supporting Actor

My Current Picks

Willem Dafoe for “The Florida Project

Richard Jenkins for “The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Michael Stuhlbarg for “Call Me by Your Name



Armie Hammer for “Call Me by Your Name

Woody Harrelson for “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Partick Stewart for “Logan


Long Shots

Ray Romano for “The Big Sick

Mark Rylance for “Dunkirk

Jason Mitchell for “Mudbound


Best Supporting Actress

My Current Picks

Mary J. Blige for “Mudbound

Hong Chau for “Downsizing

Holly Hunter for “The Big Sick

Allison Janney for “I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird



Melissa Leo for “Novitiate

Kirsten Dunst for “The Beguilled

Octavia Spencer for “The Shape of Water


Long Shots

Tiffany Haddish for “Girls Trip

Lesley Manville for “Phantom Thread

Kirsten Scott Thomas for “Darkest Hour


Best Original Screenplay

My Current Picks

Get Out” (Jordan Peele)

Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig)

The Post” (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)

The Shape of Water” (Guillermo del Toro)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Martin McDonagh)



The Big Sick” (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani)

I, Tonya” (Steven Rogers)

Phantom Thread” (Paul Thomas Anderson)


Long Shots

Darkest Hour” (Anthony McCarten)

The Florida Project” (Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch)

The Killing of a Sacred Deer” (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou)


Best Adapted Screenplay

My Current Picks

 “Call Me by Your Name” (James Ivory)

The Disaster Artist” (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)

Molly’s Game” (Aaron Sorkin)

Mudbound” (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)

Wonder” (Steve Conrad)



All the Money in the World” (David Scarpa)

The Beguiled” (Sofia Coppola)

Blade Runner 2049” (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)


Long Shots

Last Flag Flying” (Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan)

Logan” (James Mangold, Scott Frank and Michael Green)

Wonderstruck” (Brian Selznick)


Best Animated Feature

My Current Picks

“The Breadwinner” (Nora Twomey)

“Coco” (Lee Unkrich and Adrian Molina)

“The LEGO Batman Movie” (Chris McKay)

“Loving Vincent” (Doreta Kobiela and Hugh Welchman)

“Mary and the Witch’s Flower” (Hiromasa Yonebayashi)



“The Boss Baby” (Tom McGrath)

“Ferdinand” (Carlos Saldanha)

“The Girl Without Hands” (Sebastien Laudenbach)


Long Shots

“Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie” (David Soren)

“Despicable Me 3” (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin and Eric Guillon)

“In This Corner of the World” (Sunao Katabuchi)

Best Cinematography

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Roger Deakins)

Call Me by Your Name” (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)

Darkest Hour” (Bruno Delbonnel)

Dunkirk” (Hoyte van Hoytema)

The Shape of Water” (Dan Laustsen)



Mudbound” (Rachel Morrison)

The Post” (Janusz Kaminski)

Wonderstruck” (Edward Lachman)


Long Shots

The Beguiled” (Philippe Le Sourd)

Murder on the Orient Express” (Haris Zambarioukos)

Wonder Wheel” (Vittorio Storaro)


Best Production Design

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola)

Darkest Hour” (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)

Dunkirk” (Nathan Crowley)

The Greatest Showman” (Nathan Crowley)

 “The Shape of Water” (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin & Shane Vieau)



 “Phantom Thread” (Mark Tidesley and Veronique Melery)

The Post” (Rick Carter)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Rich Heinrichs)


Long Shots

Beauty and the Beast” (Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer)

Mudbound” (David J. Bomba)

Murder on the Orient Express” (Jim Clay)


Best Costume Design

My Current Picks

Beauty and the Beast” (Jacqueline Durran)

The Beguiled” (Stacey Battat)

Darkest Hour” (Jacqueline Durran)

Phantom Thread” (Mark Bridges)

The Shape of Water” (Luis Sequeira)



Blade Runner 2049” (Renee April)

The Greatest Showman” (Ellen Mirojnick)

Victoria and Abdul” (Consolata Boyle)


Long Shots

Murder on the Orient Express” (Alexandra Bryne and Timothy Everest)

The Post” (Ann Roth)

Wonder Woman” (Lindy Hemming)


Best Film Editing

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Joe Walker)

Dunkirk” (Lee Smith)

Get Out” (Gregory Plotkin)

I, Tonya” (Tatiana S. Riegel)

The Shape of Water” (Sidney Wolinsky)



Call Me By Your Name” (Walter Fasano)

The Post” (Michael Kahn)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Jon Gregory)


Long Shots

Baby Driver” (Paul Machliss)

The Florida Project” (Sean Baker)

Lady Bird” (Nick Houy)


Best Sound Mixing

My Current Picks

Baby Driver” (Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater)

Blade Runner 2049” (Ron Barlett & Mac Ruth)

Dunkirk” (Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo & Mark Weingarten)

The Shape of Water” (Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (David Parker and Michael Semanchick)



Get Out” (Jeffree Bloomer and Jonathan Wales)

The Greatest Showman” (Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White)

Wonder Woman” (Chris Burdon and Gilbert Lake)


Long Shots

Detroit” (Tom Burns & Paul N.J. Ottosson)

The Post” (Gary Rydstrom)

War of the Planet of the Apes” (Chris Duesterdiek, Andy Nelson and William Files)


Best Sound Editing

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Theo Green & Mark A. Mangini)

Dunkirk” (Richard King and Alex Gibson)

The Shape of Water” (Nathan Robitaille)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Matthew Wood)

Wonder Woman” (David Mackie & James Mather)



Baby Driver” (Julian Slater)

Get Out” (Trevor Gates)

War for the Planet of the Apes” (William Files and Douglass Murray)


Long Shots

Detroit” (Paul N.J. Ottoson)

“Logan” (Donald Sylvester)

The Post” (Richard Hymns)


Best Visual Effects

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller & John Nelson)

Dunkirk” (Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher and Paul Corbould)

The Shape of Water” (Dennis Berardi, Mike Hill Creature and Shane Mahan)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Richard Bain, Ben Morris & Michael Mulholland)

War for the Planet of the Apes” (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Joel Whist)



Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick)

Okja” (Erik De Boer, Jun Hyoung Kim, Jeon Hyoung Lee, Kyung-soo Park)

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” (Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau, Joe Letteri)


Long Shots

Kong: Skull Island” (Ara Khanikian, Alexandre Lafortune, Stephen Rosenbaum, Robert Weaver and Jeff White)

Alien: Covenant” (Niel Corbould, David A.T. Bowman, Vincent Cirelli, Ferran Domenech, Marcus Dryden)


Best Make-Up and Hairstyling

My Current Picks

Bright” (Pierce Austin, Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Jamie Kelman, Fernando Navarro, Christopher Allen, Kristen Saia, Christina Waltz)

Darkest Hour” (Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinkowski & Lucy Sibbick)

I, Tonya” (Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest)



Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (John Blake, Camille Friend and Brian Sipe)

Wonder” (J.D. Bowers, Megan Harkness, Ailsa Macmillan, Robert A. Pandini)


Long Shots

Ghost in the Shell” (Deborah La Mia Denaver, Mary Mastro, Elka Wardega)

Victoria & Abdul” (Beverly Binda, Andrea Cracknell, Adam James Phillips, Tapio Salmi, Amie Wilson)


Best Original Score

My Current Picks

Blade Runner 2049” (Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer)

Darkest Hour” (Dario Marianelli)

Dunkirk” (Hans Zimmer)

Phantom Thread” (Jonny Greenwood)

The Shape of Water” (Alexandre Desplat)



The Post” (John Williams)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (John Williams)

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Carter Burwell)


Long Shots

Victoria and Abdul” (Thomas Newman)

War for the Planet of the Apes” (Michael Giacchino)

Wonderstruck” (Carter Burwell)


Best Original Song

My Current Picks

Call Me by Your Name” (“The Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens)

Coco” (“Remember Me” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)

Detroit” (“It Ain’t Fair” by Ahmir Thompson and Tariq Trotter)

The Greatest Showman” (“This Is Me” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)

Mudbound” (“Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson)



Fifty Shades Darker” (“I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” by Taylor Swift, Sam Dew, Jack Antonoff. Performed by Zayn and Taylor Swift)

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (“You Shouldn’t Look at Me That Way” by Elvis Costello)

The Greatest Showman” (“Come Alive” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)


Long Shots

Battle of the Sexes” (“If I Dare” by Sara Bareilles and Nicholas Britell)

Cries from Syria” (“Prayers for this World” by Diane Warren and Cher)

Marshall” (“Stand Up for Something” by Common, Andra Day and Diane Warren)


Best Foreign Language Film

My Current Picks

A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)

Foxtrot” (Israel)

 “Loveless” (Russia)

The Square” (Sweden)

The Wound” (South Africa)



In the Fade” (Germany)

The Insult” (Lebanon)


Long Shots

Felicite” (Senegal)

On Body and Soul” (Hungary)


Best Documentary Feature

My Current Picks

“City of Ghosts” (Matthew Heineman)

“Faces Places” (JR and Agnes Varda)

“Icarus” (Bryan Fogel)

“Jane” (Brett Morgen)

“Strong Island” (Yance Ford)



“Chasing Coral” (Jeff Orlowski)

“Human Flow” (Ai Weiwei)

“Last Men in Aleppo” (Firas Fayyad, Steen Johannessen and Hasan Kattan)


Long Shots

“Ex Libris – The New York Public Library” (Frederick Wiseman)

 “LA 92” (Dan Lindsay and T.J. Martin)

“Long Strange Trip” (Amir Bar-Lev)


Best Documentary Short

My Current Picks

“116 Cameras” (Davina Pardo)

“Alone” (Daniel Attrill and Louis Taylor)

“Edith + Eddie” (Laura Checkoway)

“Heroin(e)” (Elaine McMillion)

“Ten Meter Tower” (Axel Danielson and Maximilien van Aertyck)



“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405” (Frank Stiefel)

“Ram Dass, Going Home” (Derek Peck)

“Traffic Stop” (Gina Kamentsky and Julie Zammarchi)


Long Shots

“Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets” (Mari Bakke Riise)

“Knife Skills” (Thomas Lennon)


Best Animated Short

My Current Picks

“Cradle” (Devon Manney)

“Dear Basketball” (Glen Keane)

“In a Heartbeat” (Esteban Bravo and Beth David)

“Lou” (Dave Mullins)

“Negative Space” (Ru Kuwahata and Max Porter)



“Fox and the Whale” (Robin Joseph)

“Life Smartphone” (Chenglin Xie)

“Lost Property Office” (Daniel Agdag)


Long Shots

“Garden Party” (Florian Babikian, Vincent Bayoux, Victor Caire, Theophile Dufresne, Gabriel Grpperon and Lucas Navarro)

“Revolting Rhymes” (Jan Lachauer, Jakob Schuh and Bin-Han To)


Best Live Action Short

My Current Picks

“DeKalb Elementary” (Reed Van Dyk)

“Facing Mecca” (Jan-Eric Mack)

“The Silent Child” (Chris Overton)

“Watu Wote/All of Us” (Katja Benrath)

“Witnesses” (David Koch)



“Lost Face” (Sean Meehan)

“My Nephew Emmett” (Kevin Wilson Jr.)

“Rise of a Star” (James Bort)


Long Shots

“The Eleven O’Clock” (Derin Seale)

“Icebox” (Daniel Sawka)