New year, new predictions. We’ve seen several critic awards occur, all the major shortlists have been unveiled and all the movies in serious contention have been screened to critics. There are still a few weeks to go before January 23rd announcement, but it doesn’t hurt to try reading the Academy’s mind again.
So with all that preamble done, here are my up to date predictions for the race. Certain categories will reflect the current shortlist of nominees eligible (i.e. make-up and hairstyling, visual effects, etc.). And I have also narrowed down the runners-up and long shot categories as I prepare to solidify my predictions for my third and final round of predictions before the announcement.
Best Picture
My Current Picks (if there are ten)
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Runners-Up
Darkest Hour
The Disaster Artist
Phantom Thread
Long Shots
The Big Sick
The Greatest Showman
Molly’s Game
Best Director
My Current Picks
Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird”
Luca Guadagino for “Call Me By Your Name”
Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk”
Steven Spielberg for “The Post”
Runners-Up
Martin McDonagh for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Jordan Peele for “Get Out”
Sean Baker for “The Florida Project”
Long Shots
Paul Thomas Anderson for “Phantom Thread”
Denis Villeneuve for “Blade Runner 2049”
Joe Wright for “Darkest Hour”
Best Actor
My Current Picks
Timothy Chalamet for “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Kaluuya for “Get Out”
Daniel Day-Lewis for “Phantom Thread”
James Franco for “The Disaster Artist”
Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour”
Runners-Up
Jake Gyllenhaal for “Stronger”
Tom Hanks for “The Post”
Denzel Washington for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Long Shot
Andrew Garfield for “Breathe”
Hugh Jackman for “The Greatest Showman”
Jeremy Renner for “Wind River”
Best Actress
My Current Picks
Sally Hawkins for “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie for “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan for “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep for “The Post”
Runners-Up
Jessica Chastain for “Molly’s Game”
Judi Dench for “Victoria and Abdul”
Michelle Williams for “All the Money in the World”
Long Shots
Nicole Kidman for “The Beguiled”
Diane Kruger for “In the Fade”
Emma Stone for “Battle of the Sexes”
Best Supporting Actor
My Current Picks
Willem Dafoe for “The Florida Project”
Richard Jenkins for “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer for “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Michael Stuhlbarg for “Call Me by Your Name”
Runners-Up
Armie Hammer for “Call Me by Your Name”
Woody Harrelson for “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Partick Stewart for “Logan”
Long Shots
Ray Romano for “The Big Sick”
Mark Rylance for “Dunkirk”
Jason Mitchell for “Mudbound”
Best Supporting Actress
My Current Picks
Mary J. Blige for “Mudbound”
Hong Chau for “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter for “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney for “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird”
Runners-Up
Melissa Leo for “Novitiate”
Kirsten Dunst for “The Beguilled”
Octavia Spencer for “The Shape of Water”
Long Shots
Tiffany Haddish for “Girls Trip”
Lesley Manville for “Phantom Thread”
Kirsten Scott Thomas for “Darkest Hour”
Best Original Screenplay
My Current Picks
“Get Out” (Jordan Peele)
“Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig)
“The Post” (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
“The Shape of Water” (Guillermo del Toro)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Martin McDonagh)
Runners-Up
“The Big Sick” (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani)
“I, Tonya” (Steven Rogers)
“Phantom Thread” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Long Shots
“Darkest Hour” (Anthony McCarten)
“The Florida Project” (Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch)
“The Killing of a Sacred Deer” (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou)
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Current Picks
“Call Me by Your Name” (James Ivory)
“The Disaster Artist” (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)
“Molly’s Game” (Aaron Sorkin)
“Mudbound” (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
“Wonder” (Steve Conrad)
Runners-Up
“All the Money in the World” (David Scarpa)
“The Beguiled” (Sofia Coppola)
“Blade Runner 2049” (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)
Long Shots
“Last Flag Flying” (Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan)
“Logan” (James Mangold, Scott Frank and Michael Green)
“Wonderstruck” (Brian Selznick)
Best Animated Feature
My Current Picks
“The Breadwinner” (Nora Twomey)
“Coco” (Lee Unkrich and Adrian Molina)
“The LEGO Batman Movie” (Chris McKay)
“Loving Vincent” (Doreta Kobiela and Hugh Welchman)
“Mary and the Witch’s Flower” (Hiromasa Yonebayashi)
Runners-Up
“The Boss Baby” (Tom McGrath)
“Ferdinand” (Carlos Saldanha)
“The Girl Without Hands” (Sebastien Laudenbach)
Long Shots
“Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie” (David Soren)
“Despicable Me 3” (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin and Eric Guillon)
“In This Corner of the World” (Sunao Katabuchi)
Best Cinematography
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Roger Deakins)
“Call Me by Your Name” (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
“Darkest Hour” (Bruno Delbonnel)
“Dunkirk” (Hoyte van Hoytema)
“The Shape of Water” (Dan Laustsen)
Runners-Up
“Mudbound” (Rachel Morrison)
“The Post” (Janusz Kaminski)
“Wonderstruck” (Edward Lachman)
Long Shots
“The Beguiled” (Philippe Le Sourd)
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Haris Zambarioukos)
“Wonder Wheel” (Vittorio Storaro)
Best Production Design
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola)
“Darkest Hour” (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
“Dunkirk” (Nathan Crowley)
“The Greatest Showman” (Nathan Crowley)
“The Shape of Water” (Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin & Shane Vieau)
Runners-Up
“Phantom Thread” (Mark Tidesley and Veronique Melery)
“The Post” (Rick Carter)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Rich Heinrichs)
Long Shots
“Beauty and the Beast” (Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer)
“Mudbound” (David J. Bomba)
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Jim Clay)
Best Costume Design
My Current Picks
“Beauty and the Beast” (Jacqueline Durran)
“The Beguiled” (Stacey Battat)
“Darkest Hour” (Jacqueline Durran)
“Phantom Thread” (Mark Bridges)
“The Shape of Water” (Luis Sequeira)
Runners-Up
“Blade Runner 2049” (Renee April)
“The Greatest Showman” (Ellen Mirojnick)
“Victoria and Abdul” (Consolata Boyle)
Long Shots
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Alexandra Bryne and Timothy Everest)
“The Post” (Ann Roth)
“Wonder Woman” (Lindy Hemming)
Best Film Editing
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Joe Walker)
“Dunkirk” (Lee Smith)
“Get Out” (Gregory Plotkin)
“I, Tonya” (Tatiana S. Riegel)
“The Shape of Water” (Sidney Wolinsky)
Runners-Up
“Call Me By Your Name” (Walter Fasano)
“The Post” (Michael Kahn)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Jon Gregory)
Long Shots
“Baby Driver” (Paul Machliss)
“The Florida Project” (Sean Baker)
“Lady Bird” (Nick Houy)
Best Sound Mixing
My Current Picks
“Baby Driver” (Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater)
“Blade Runner 2049” (Ron Barlett & Mac Ruth)
“Dunkirk” (Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo & Mark Weingarten)
“The Shape of Water” (Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (David Parker and Michael Semanchick)
Runners-Up
“Get Out” (Jeffree Bloomer and Jonathan Wales)
“The Greatest Showman” (Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White)
“Wonder Woman” (Chris Burdon and Gilbert Lake)
Long Shots
“Detroit” (Tom Burns & Paul N.J. Ottosson)
“The Post” (Gary Rydstrom)
“War of the Planet of the Apes” (Chris Duesterdiek, Andy Nelson and William Files)
Best Sound Editing
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Theo Green & Mark A. Mangini)
“Dunkirk” (Richard King and Alex Gibson)
“The Shape of Water” (Nathan Robitaille)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Matthew Wood)
“Wonder Woman” (David Mackie & James Mather)
Runners-Up
“Baby Driver” (Julian Slater)
“Get Out” (Trevor Gates)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (William Files and Douglass Murray)
Long Shots
“Detroit” (Paul N.J. Ottoson)
“Logan” (Donald Sylvester)
“The Post” (Richard Hymns)
Best Visual Effects
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller & John Nelson)
“Dunkirk” (Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher and Paul Corbould)
“The Shape of Water” (Dennis Berardi, Mike Hill Creature and Shane Mahan)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Richard Bain, Ben Morris & Michael Mulholland)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Joel Whist)
Runners-Up
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick)
“Okja” (Erik De Boer, Jun Hyoung Kim, Jeon Hyoung Lee, Kyung-soo Park)
“Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” (Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau, Joe Letteri)
Long Shots
“Kong: Skull Island” (Ara Khanikian, Alexandre Lafortune, Stephen Rosenbaum, Robert Weaver and Jeff White)
“Alien: Covenant” (Niel Corbould, David A.T. Bowman, Vincent Cirelli, Ferran Domenech, Marcus Dryden)
Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
My Current Picks
“Bright” (Pierce Austin, Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Jamie Kelman, Fernando Navarro, Christopher Allen, Kristen Saia, Christina Waltz)
“Darkest Hour” (Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinkowski & Lucy Sibbick)
“I, Tonya” (Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest)
Runners-Up
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (John Blake, Camille Friend and Brian Sipe)
“Wonder” (J.D. Bowers, Megan Harkness, Ailsa Macmillan, Robert A. Pandini)
Long Shots
“Ghost in the Shell” (Deborah La Mia Denaver, Mary Mastro, Elka Wardega)
“Victoria & Abdul” (Beverly Binda, Andrea Cracknell, Adam James Phillips, Tapio Salmi, Amie Wilson)
Best Original Score
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer)
“Darkest Hour” (Dario Marianelli)
“Dunkirk” (Hans Zimmer)
“Phantom Thread” (Jonny Greenwood)
“The Shape of Water” (Alexandre Desplat)
Runners-Up
“The Post” (John Williams)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (John Williams)
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Carter Burwell)
Long Shots
“Victoria and Abdul” (Thomas Newman)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (Michael Giacchino)
“Wonderstruck” (Carter Burwell)
Best Original Song
My Current Picks
“Call Me by Your Name” (“The Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens)
“Coco” (“Remember Me” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)
“Detroit” (“It Ain’t Fair” by Ahmir Thompson and Tariq Trotter)
“The Greatest Showman” (“This Is Me” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)
“Mudbound” (“Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson)
Runners-Up
“Fifty Shades Darker” (“I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” by Taylor Swift, Sam Dew, Jack Antonoff. Performed by Zayn and Taylor Swift)
“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (“You Shouldn’t Look at Me That Way” by Elvis Costello)
“The Greatest Showman” (“Come Alive” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)
Long Shots
“Battle of the Sexes” (“If I Dare” by Sara Bareilles and Nicholas Britell)
“Cries from Syria” (“Prayers for this World” by Diane Warren and Cher)
“Marshall” (“Stand Up for Something” by Common, Andra Day and Diane Warren)
Best Foreign Language Film
My Current Picks
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“Foxtrot” (Israel)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“The Square” (Sweden)
“The Wound” (South Africa)
Runners-Up
“In the Fade” (Germany)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
Long Shots
“Felicite” (Senegal)
“On Body and Soul” (Hungary)
Best Documentary Feature
My Current Picks
“City of Ghosts” (Matthew Heineman)
“Faces Places” (JR and Agnes Varda)
“Icarus” (Bryan Fogel)
“Jane” (Brett Morgen)
“Strong Island” (Yance Ford)
Runners-Up
“Chasing Coral” (Jeff Orlowski)
“Human Flow” (Ai Weiwei)
“Last Men in Aleppo” (Firas Fayyad, Steen Johannessen and Hasan Kattan)
Long Shots
“Ex Libris – The New York Public Library” (Frederick Wiseman)
“LA 92” (Dan Lindsay and T.J. Martin)
“Long Strange Trip” (Amir Bar-Lev)
Best Documentary Short
My Current Picks
“116 Cameras” (Davina Pardo)
“Alone” (Daniel Attrill and Louis Taylor)
“Edith + Eddie” (Laura Checkoway)
“Heroin(e)” (Elaine McMillion)
“Ten Meter Tower” (Axel Danielson and Maximilien van Aertyck)
Runners-Up
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405” (Frank Stiefel)
“Ram Dass, Going Home” (Derek Peck)
“Traffic Stop” (Gina Kamentsky and Julie Zammarchi)
Long Shots
“Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets” (Mari Bakke Riise)
“Knife Skills” (Thomas Lennon)
Best Animated Short
My Current Picks
“Cradle” (Devon Manney)
“Dear Basketball” (Glen Keane)
“In a Heartbeat” (Esteban Bravo and Beth David)
“Lou” (Dave Mullins)
“Negative Space” (Ru Kuwahata and Max Porter)
Runners-Up
“Fox and the Whale” (Robin Joseph)
“Life Smartphone” (Chenglin Xie)
“Lost Property Office” (Daniel Agdag)
Long Shots
“Garden Party” (Florian Babikian, Vincent Bayoux, Victor Caire, Theophile Dufresne, Gabriel Grpperon and Lucas Navarro)
“Revolting Rhymes” (Jan Lachauer, Jakob Schuh and Bin-Han To)
Best Live Action Short
My Current Picks
“DeKalb Elementary” (Reed Van Dyk)
“Facing Mecca” (Jan-Eric Mack)
“The Silent Child” (Chris Overton)
“Watu Wote/All of Us” (Katja Benrath)
“Witnesses” (David Koch)
Runners-Up
“Lost Face” (Sean Meehan)
“My Nephew Emmett” (Kevin Wilson Jr.)
“Rise of a Star” (James Bort)
Long Shots
“The Eleven O’Clock” (Derin Seale)
“Icebox” (Daniel Sawka)