November is here! You know what that means? That’s right. Awards season is starting in earnest!
The first batch of screeners are being mailed out and the heavy hitters are making their way to a theater near you…depending on where you live. We still have another month of notable releases to go, but that has not before and will not ever stop me from doing early predictions.
Predicting nominees is never easy and this year is proving to be especially difficult as there have been no clear front runners in most categories. I said this last year too and front runners eventually emerge, but it seems like it is taking longer for Hollywood to embrace a movie as their “best film of the year.” There are also bound to be plenty of out of left field surprises too. So I have to go off of my instincts here to pick nominees based on what other prediction websites are buzzing about, the reviews we have so far and what is currently eligible for each categories (which will become more clear as the Academy rolls out their category shortlists). You might see some wishful thinking among my picks too, but Blade Runner 2049 is amazing and deserves lots of nominations so I make no apologies!
Also, I want to announce that I am launching a limited run podcast to discuss the award season along with other people on the site. Expect to hear the debut episode later this week as we go in-depth on the politics of the season, recount our own personal experience watching these shows and geek out over who we would hope to win. It’s like fantasy football for cinephiles!
With that said, here is my first round of predictions for the 2018 Oscar nominations. Short film categories will be excluded because it’s too freaking hard to predict those this far out (and they are almost impossible to predict even for veteran Oscar fans).
And as always, feel free to offer your opinions in the comments. Do you agree with my picks? Did I miss something significant? Let us know!
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Best Picture
My Current Picks (if there are ten)
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Runners-Up
The Disaster Artist
The Florida Project
The Greatest Showman
Molly’s Game
The Wind River
Long Shots
Battle of the Sexes
The Big Sick
Detroit
Mudbound
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
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Best Director
My Current Picks
Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water”
Luca Guadagino for “Call Me By Your Name”
Martin McDonagh for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk”
Steven Spielberg for “The Post”
Runners-Up
Sean Baker for “The Florida Project”
Kathryn Bigelow for “Detroit”
Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird”
Denis Villeneuve for “Blade Runner 2049”
Joe Wright for “Darkest Hour”
Long Shots
Paul Thomas Anderson for “Phantom Thread”
Craig Gillespie for “I, Tonya”
Jordan Peele for “Get Out”
Dee Rees for “Mudbound”
Aaron Sorkin for “Molly’s Game”
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Best Actor
My Current Picks
Timothy Chalamet for “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis for “Phantom Thread”
James Franco for “The Disaster Artist”
Jake Gyllenhaal for “Stronger”
Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour”
Runners-Up
Andrew Garfield for “Breathe”
Tom Hanks for “The Post”
Robert Patinson for “Good Time”
Jeremy Renner for “Wind River”
Denzel Washington for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Long Shots
Christian Bale for “Hostiles”
Steve Carrell for “Last Flag Flying”
Hugh Jackman for “The Greatest Showman”
Daniel Kaluuya for “Get Out”
Harry Dean Stanton for “Lucky”
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Best Actress
My Current Picks
Jessica Chastain for “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins for “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie for “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan for “Lady Bird”
Runners-Up
Judi Dench for “Victoria and Abdul”
Diane Kruger for “In the Fade”
Emma Stone for “Battle of the Sexes”
Meryl Streep for “The Post”
Kate Winslet for “Wonder Wheel”
Long Shots
Vicky Krieps for “Phantom Thread”
Jennifer Lawrence for “mother!”
Cynthia Nixon for “A Quiet Passion”
Brooklyn Prince for “The Florida Project”
Daniela Vega for “A Fantastic Woman”
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Best Supporting Actor
My Current Picks
Willem Dafoe for “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer for “Call Me by Your Name”
Richard Jenkins for “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Michael Stuhlbarg for “Call Me by Your Name”
Runners-Up
Bryan Cranston for “Last Flag Flying”
Woody Harrelson for “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Ben Mendelsohn for “Darkest Hour”
Mark Rylance for “Dunkirk”
Michael Shannon for “The Shape of Water”
Long Shots
Sebastian Stan for “I, Tonya”
Dustin Hoffman for “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)”
Jason Mitchell for “Mudbound”
Will Poulter for “Detroit”
Ray Romano for “The Big Sick”
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Best Supporting Actress
My Current Picks
Mary J. Blige for “Mudbound”
Holly Hunter for “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney for “I, Tonya”
Melissa Leo for “Novitiate”
Laurie Metcalf for “Lady Bird”
Runners-Up
Hong Chau for “Downsizing”
Claire Foy for “Breathe”
Tatiana Maslany for “Stronger”
Kirsten Scott Thomas for “Darkest Hour”
Bria Vinaite for “The Florida Project”
Long Shots
Kirsten Dunst for “The Beguilled”
Tiffany Haddish for “Girls Trip”
Julianne Moore for “Wonderstruck”
Lois Smith for “Majorie Prime”
Octavia Spencer for “The Shape of Water”
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Best Original Screenplay
My Current Picks
“The Big Sick” (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani)
“Get Out” (Jordan Peele)
“Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig)
“The Shape of Water” (Guillermo del Toro)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Martin McDonagh)
Runners-Up
“Darkest Hour” (Anthony McCarten)
“The Florida Project” (Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch)
“I, Tonya” (Steven Rogers)
“The Killing of a Sacred Deer” (Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou)
“The Post” (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
Long Shots
“Battle of the Sexes” (Simon Beaufoy)
“Coco” (Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molian and Lee Unkrich)
“Detroit” (Mark Boal)
“Phantom Thread” (Paul Thomas Anderson)
“Wind River” (Taylor Sheridan)
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Best Adapted Screenplay
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Hampton Fancher and Michael Green)
“Call Me by Your Name” (James Ivory)
“The Death of Stalin” (Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, Peter Fellos, Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin)
“The Disaster Artist” (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)
“Molly’s Game” (Aaron Sorkin)
Runners-Up
“The Beguiled” (Sofia Coppola)
“Last Flag Flying” (Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan)
“Mudbound” (Dee Rees & Virgil Williams)
“Stronger” (John Pollono)
“Wonderstruck” (Brian Selznick)
Long Shots
“All the Money in the World” (David Scarpa)
“Logan” (James Mangold, Scott Frank and Michael Green)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Rian Johnson)
“Victoria and Abdul” (Lee Hall and Shrabani Basu)
“Wonder” (Steve Conrad)
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Best Animated Feature
My Current Picks
“The Breadwinner” (Nora Twomey)
“Coco” (Lee Unkrich)
“The LEGO Batman Movie” (Chris McKay)
“Loving Vincent” (Dorota Kobiela & Hugh Welchman)
“Mary and the Witch’s Flower” (Hiromasa Yonebayashi)
Runners-Up
“The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales” (Patrick Imbert and Benjamin Renner)
“Captain Underpants” (David Soren)
“Despicable Me 3” (Kyle Balda, Pierre Coffin and Eric Guillon)
“The Girl Without Hands” (Sebastian Laudenbach)
“My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea” (Timothy Reckart)
Long Shots
“Birdboy: The Forgotten Children” (Pedro Rivera and Alberto Vazquez)
“Cars 3” (Brian Fee)
“Ferdinand” (Carlos Saldanha)
“In This Corner of the World” (Sunao Katabuchi)
“The LEGO Ninjago Movie” (Charlie Bean, Paul Fisher and Bob Logan)
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Best Cinematography
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Roger Deakins)
“Darkest Hour” (Bruno Delbonnel)
“Dunkirk” (Hoyte van Hoytema)
“The Shape of Water” (Dan Laustsen)
“Wonderstruck” (Edward Lachman)
Runners-Up
“Call Me By Your Name” (Sayombhu Mukdeeprom)
“The Greatest Showman” (Seamus McGarvey)
“mother!” (Matthew Libatique)
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Haris Zambarioukos)
“The Post” (Janusz Kaminski)
Long Shots
“The Beguiled” (Philippe LeSourd)
“Detroit” (Barry Ackroyd)
“It” (Chung-hoon Chung)
“The Lost City of Z” (Darius Kohndji)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Steve Yedlin)
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Best Production Design
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Dennis Gassner)
“Darkest Hour” (Sarah Greenwood)
“Dunkirk” (Nathan Crowley)
“The Shape of Water” (Paul D. Austerberry)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Rich Heinrichs)
Runners-Up
“Beauty and the Beast” (Sarah Greenwood)
“The Greatest Showman” (Nathan Crowley)
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Jim Clay)
“Phantom Thread” (Mark Tidesley and Veronique Melery)
“The Post” (Rick Carter)
Long Shots
“The Beguiled” (Anne Ross)
“Mudbound” (David J. Bomba)
“Victoria and Abdul” (Alan MacDonald)
“Wonder Woman” (Aline Bonetto)
“Wonderstruck” (Mark Friedberg)
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Best Costume Design
My Current Picks
“Beauty and the Beast” (Jacqueline Durran)
“Darkest Hour” (Jacqueline Durran)
“Murder on the Orient Express” (Alexandra Bryne and Timothy Everest)
“Phantom Thread” (Mark Bridges)
“The Shape of Water” (Luis Sequeira)
Runners-Up
“The Beguiled” (Stacey Battat)
“Blade Runner 2049” (Renee April)
“The Greatest Showman” (Ellen Mirojnick)
“Victoria and Abdul” (Consolata Boyle)
“Wonderstruck” (Sandy Powell)
Long Shots
“Battle of the Sexes” (Mary Zophres)
“Mudbound” (Michael T. Boyd)
“The Post” (Ann Roth)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Michael Kaplan)
“Wonder Woman” (Lindy Hemming)
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Best Film Editing
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Joe Walker)
“Dunkirk” (Lee Smith)
“Get Out” (Gregory Plotkin)
“The Shape of Water” (Sidney Wolinsky)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Jon Gregory)
Runners-Up
“Call Me By Your Name” (Walter Fasano)
“Darkest Hour” (Valerio Bonelli)
“I, Tonya” (Tatiana S. Riegel)
“The Post” (Michael Kahn)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Bob Ducsay)
Long Shots
“Baby Driver” (Paul Machliss)
“Detroit” (William Goldenberg and Harry Yoon)
“The Florida Project” (Sean Baker)
“Last Flag Flying” (Sandra Adair)
“Mudbound” (Mako Kamitsuna)
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Best Sound Mixing
My Current Picks
“Baby Driver” (Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater)
“Blade Runner 2049” (Ron Barlett & Mac Ruth)
“Dunkirk” (Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo & Mark Weingarten)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (David Parker and Michael Semanchick)
“War of the Planet of the Apes” (Chris Duesterdiek, Andy Nelson and William Files)
Runners-Up
“Darkest Hour” (Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan)
“Detroit” (Tom Burns & Paul N.J. Ottosson)
“Get Out” (Jeffree Bloomer and Jonathan Wales)
“The Greatest Showman” (Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White)
“The Shape of Water” (Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern)
Long Shots
“Logan” (Brian Bair, David Giammarco, Craig Henighan and Paul Massey)
“The Post” (Gary Rydstrom)
“Spider-Man: Homecoming” (Jeremy B. Davis, Tony Lamberti and Kevin O’Connell)
“Thor Ragnarok” (Lora Hirschberg, Juan Peralta and Guntis Sics)
“Wonder Woman” (Chris Burdon and Gilbert Lake)
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Best Sound Editing
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Theo Green & Mark A. Mangini)
“Dunkirk” (Richard King and Alex Gibson)
“The Shape of Water” (Nathan Robitaille)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Matthew Wood)
“Wonder Woman” (David Mackie & James Mather)
Runners-Up
“Detroit” (Paul N.J. Ottoson)
“Get Out” (Trevor Gates)
“The Post” (Richard Hymns)
“Spider-Man: Homecoming” (Eric A. Norris and Steven Ticknor)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (William Files and Douglass Murray)
Long Shots
“Battle of the Sexes” (Mildred Iatrou and Ai-Ling Lee)
“Coco” (Christopher Boyes and JR Grubbs)
“Logan” (Donald Sylvester)
“Thor Ragnarok” (Daniel Laurie and Shannon Mills)
“Transformers: The Last Knight” (Ethan Van der Ryn, Joel Erickson)
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Best Visual Effects
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller & John Nelson)
“The Shape of Water” (Dennis Berardi and Shane Mahan)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Richard Bain, Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland and Chris Corbould)
“Thor Ragnarok” (Brian Cox, Jake Morrison, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (Paul Corbould, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri & Kyle McCulloch)
Runners-Up
“Dunkirk” (Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher and Paul Corbould)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend)
“Kong: Skull Island” (Ara Khanikian, Alexandre Lafortune, Stephen Rosenbaum, Robert Weaver and Jeff White)
“Spider-Man: Homecoming” (Theodore Bialek, Lou Pecora, Doug Spilatro and Daniel Sudick)
“Wonder Woman” (Frazer Churchill, Victor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westernhofer)
Long Shots
“Beauty and the Beast” (Kyle McCulloch, Kelly Port, Glen Pratt and Steve Preeg)
“Okja” (Eric De Boer, Jun Hyoung Kim, Jeon Hyoung Lee and Kyung-soo Park)
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” (Gary Brozenich, Bill Kent, Sheldon Stopsack and Dan Oliver)
“Transformers: The Last Knight” (Scott Farrar, Julian Foddy, Berter Orpak, Jason Smith and Sheldon Stopsak)
“Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” (Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau and Joe Letteri)
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Best Make-Up and Hairstyling
My Current Picks
“Darkest Hour” (Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinkowski & Lucy Sibbick)
“It” (Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O’Quinn and Sean Sansom)
“The Shape of Water” (Shane Mahan, Mike Hill, Paula Fleet and Jordan Samuel)
Runners-Up
“I, Tonya” (Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest)
“Logan” (Gloria Pasqua Casny, Joel Harlow)
“Thor Ragnarok” (Enzo Mastrantoni and Luca Vannella)
Long Shots
“Beauty and the Beast” (Jenny Shircore)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” (John Blake, Camille Friend and Brian Sipe)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Flora Moody and Allison Sing)
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Best Original Score
My Current Picks
“Blade Runner 2049” (Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer)
“Darkest Hour” (Dario Marianelli)
“Dunkirk” (Hans Zimmer)
“The Shape of Water” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (John Williams)
Runners-Up
“Coco” (Michael Giacchino)
“It” (Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Phantom Thread” (Jonny Greenwood)
“The Post” (John Williams)
“War for the Planet of the Apes” (Michael Giacchino)
Long Shots
“Detroit” (James Newton Howard)
“Good Time” (Daniel Lopatin)
“The Greatest Showman” (John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)
“Victoria and Abdul” (Thomas Newman)
“Wonderstruck” (Carter Burwell)
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Best Original Song
My Current Picks
“Coco” (“Remember Me” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez)
“Cries from Syria” (“Prayers for this World” by Diane Warren and Cher)
“Detroit” (“It Ain’t Fair” by Ahmir Thompson and Tariq Trotter)
“The Greatest Showman” (“Come Alive” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)
“Marshall” (“Stand Up for Something” by Common, Andra Day and Diane Warren)
Runners-Up
“Battle of the Sexes” (“If I Dare” by Sara Bareilles and Nicholas Britell)
“Call Me by Your Name” (“Mystery of Love” by Sufjan Stevens)
“Step” (“Jump” by Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson and Laura Karpman
Long Shots
“Despicable Me 3” (“There’s Something Special” by Pharrell Williams)
“The Greatest Showman” (“This Is Me” by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul)
“Mudbound” (“Mighty River” by Mary J. Blige, Raphel Saadiq and Taura Stinson)
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Best Foreign Language Film
My Current Picks
“BPM (Beats Per Minute)” (France) (Robin Campillo)
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile) (Sebastian Lelio)
“Foxtrot” (Israel) (Samuel Maoz)
“In the Fade” (Germany) (Fatih Akin)
“The Square” (Sweden) (Ruben Ostlund)
Runners-Up
“First They Killed My Father” (Cambodia) (Angelina Jolie)
“Happy End” (Austria) (Michael Haneke)
“The Insult” (Lebanon) (Ziad Doueiri)
“Loveless” (Russia) (Andrey Zvyagintsev)
“Tom of Finland” (Finland) (Dome Karukoski)
Long Shots
“November” (Estonia) (Rainer Sarnet)
“Sheikh Jackson” (Egypt) (Amr Salama)
“Spoor” (Poland) (Agnieszka Holland and Kasia Adamik)
“Thelma” (Norway) (Joachim Trier)
“The Wound” (South Africa)
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Best Documentary Feature
My Current Picks
“Cries from Syria” (Evgeny Afineevsky)
“Jane” (Brett Morgan)
“Kedi” (Ceyda Torun)
“Long Strange Trip” (Amir Bar-Lev)
“Step” (Amanda Lipitz)
Runners-Up
“City of Ghosts” (Matthew Heineman)
“Icarus” (Bryan Fogel)
“Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold” (Griffin Dunne)
“Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992” (John Ridley)
“Strong Island” (Yance Ford)
Long Shots
“Dealt” (Luke Korem)
“Dina” (Antonio Santini and Dan Sickles)
“The Final Year” (Greg Barker)
“Jim and Andy: The Great Beyond – Featuring a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton” (Chris Smith)
“One of Us” (Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady)
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Short Categories
(TBD, but we now know that the AFI Fest winning shorts will automatically be entered into the Academy shortlists (“Gaze” for Live Action Short, “The Burden” for Animated Short). Special thanks to Indiewire for bringing that to my attention.)