Oscar season is afoot once again and I, Justin Zarian, am back to offer my thoughts on what will make the cut for each category when January rolls around (except for the short film categories because those are impossible to predict this early). Who are the heavy hitters this year? Well, I didn’t do too bad predicting this last year so let’s give it another shot. Here are my first impressions on who could end up on the shortlists (I will update as eligible contenders and category placements are confirmed or narrowed down).
Best Picture
My Current Picks (if there are ten)
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Green Book
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Leave No Trace
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- Vice
- Widows
Runners-Up
- At Eternity’s Gate
- Beautiful Boy
- BlacKkKlansman
- Eighth Grade
- The Mule
Dark Horses
- 22 July
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Black Panther
- Crazy Rich Asians
- Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Director
My Current Picks
- Damien Chazelle for First Man
- Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
- Alfonso Curaon for Roma
- Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk
- Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
Runners-Up
- Debra Granik for Leave No Trace
- Marielle Heller for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
- Adam McKay for Vice
- Steve McQueen for Widows
Dark Horses
- Ryan Coogler for Black Panther
- Clint Eastwood for The Mule
- Peter Farrelly for Green Book
- Paul Greengrass for 22 July
- Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War
Best Actor
My Current Picks
- Christian Bale for Vice
- Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
- Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate
- Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
- Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Runners-Up
- Steve Carrell for Beautiful Boy
- Ryan Gosling for First Man
- Ethan Hawke for First Reformed
- Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased
- Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun
Dark Horses
- Clint Eastwood for The Mule
- Ben Foster for Leave No Trace
- Hugh Jackman for The Frontrunner
- John C. Reiley for Stan and Ollie (or The Sisters Brothers)
- John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman
Best Actress
My Current Picks
- Glenn Close for The Wife
- Toni Colette for Hereditary
- Olivia Colman for The Favourite
- Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Runners-Up
- Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
- Viola Davis for Widows
- Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex
- Kiki Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk
- Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots
Dark Horses
- Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns
- Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
- Keira Knightley for Colette
- Rosamund Pike for A Private War
- Julia Roberts for Ben is Back
Best Supporting Actor
My Current Picks
- Mahershala Ali for Green Book
- Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
- Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born
- Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell for Vice
Runners-Up
- Steve Carell for Vice
- Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
- Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther
- Stephan James for If Beale Street Could Talk
- Daniel Kaluuya for Widows
Dark Horses
- Russell Crowe for Boy Erased
- Hugh Grant for Paddington 2
- Armie Hammer for On the Basis of Sex
- Brian Tyree Henry for If Beale Street Could Talk
- Dominic West for Colette
Best Supporting Actress
My Current Picks
- Amy Adams for Vice
- Claire Foy for First Man
- Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
- Emma Stone for The Favourite
- Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians
Runners-Up
- Marina de Tavira for Roma
- Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased
- Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots
- Sissy Spacek for The Old Man and the Gun
- Rachel Weitz for The Favourite
Dark Horses
- Linda Cardellini for Green Book
- Elizabeth Debicki for Widows
- Thomasin McKenzie for Leave No Trace
- Natalie Portman for Vox Lux
- Maura Tierney for Beautiful Boy
Best Original Screenplay
My Current Picks
- Eighth Grade
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- Vice
Runners-Up
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- At Eternity’s Gate
- First Reformed
- A Quiet Place
- Stan and Ollie
Dark Horses
- Hereditary
- Mid90’s
- Private Life
- The Rider
- Sorry to Bother You
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Current Picks
- BlacKkKlansman
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- First Man
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Star Is Born
Runners-Up
- Beautiful Boy
- Boy Erased
- Leave No Trace
- The Old Man and the Gun
- Widows
Dark Horses
- Crazy Rich Asians
- The Death of Stalin
- Mary Queen of Scots
- The Mule
- Wildlife
Best Cinematography
My Current Picks
- The Favourite
- First Man
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
Runners-Up
- At Eternity’s Gate
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Cold War
- Hereditary
- The Sisters Brothers
Dark Horses
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- A Quiet Place
- Suspiria
- Vice
- Widows
Best Production Design
My Current Picks
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
Runners-Up
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Mary Queen of Scots
- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Dark Horses
- At Eternity’s Gate
- BlacKkKlansman
- Ready Player One
- A Star is Born
- Suspiria
Best Costume Design
My Current Picks
- Black Panther
- Colette
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Mary Queen of Scots
Runners-Up
- Crazy Rich Asians
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- Green Book
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Dark Horses
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- BlacKkKlansman
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- A Star Is Born
Best Film Editing
My Current Picks
- First Man
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
- Vice
Runners-Up
- 22 July
- BlacKkKlansman
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- The Sisters Brothers
Dark Horses
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- At Eternity’s Gate
- A Quiet Place
Best Sound Mixing
My Current Picks
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Black Panther
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- A Star Is Born
Runners-Up
- Bumblebee
- The Incredibles 2
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Mission: Impossible – Fallout
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
Dark Horses
- Aquaman
- Ready Player One
- Roma
- Sicario 2: Day of the Soldado
- Widows
Best Sound Editing
My Current Picks
- Black Panther
- First Man
- Mission: Impossible – Fallout
- A Quiet Place
- A Star Is Born
Runners-Up
- 12 Strong
- Annihilation
- Avengers: Infinity War
- The Incredibles 2
- Ready Player One
Dark Horses
- Aquaman
- Bumblebee
- Roma
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
- Widows
Best Visual Effects
My Current Picks
- Annihilation
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Bumblebee
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
Runners-Up
- Ant-Man and the Wasp
- Black Panther
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- Ready Player One
- Solo: A Star Wars Story
Dark Horses
- Aquaman
- Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
- Rampage
- Welcome to Marwen
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
My Current Picks
- Black Panther
- Mary Queen of Scots
- Vice
Runners-Up
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
- Stan and Ollie
Dark Horses
- Border
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
Best Original Score
My Current Picks
- BlacKkKlansman
- First Man
- Hereditary
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Mary Poppins Returns
Runners-Up
- Black Panther
- Green Book
- Colette
- Mary Queen of Scots
- The Sisters Brothers
Dark Horses
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- The Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Suspiria
- Vice
Best Original Song
My Current Picks
- Deadpool 2 (“Ashes”)
- Free Solo (“Gravity”)
- Mary Poppins Returns (TBD)
- A Star Is Born (“I’ll Never Love Again”)
- A Star Is Born (“Shallow”)
Runners-Up
- Black Panther (“All the Stars”)
- Green Book (“Pray”)
- Hearts Beat Loud (“Hearts Beat Loud”)
- A Star Is Born (“Maybe It’s Time”)
- Widows (“The Big Unknown”)
Dark Horses
- Boy Erased (“Revelations”)
- Love, Simon (“Alfie’s Song (Not So Typical Love Song)”)
- Mary Poppins Returns (TBD)
- Smallfoot (“Wonderful Life”)
- A Star IS Born (“Is That Alright?”)
Best Animated Feature
My Current Picks
- The Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Mirai
- Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
- Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Runners-Up
- Early Man
- The Grinch
- Lu Over the Wall
- Smallfoot
- Teen Titans Go! To The Movies
Dark Horses
- Fireworks
- Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
- Next Gen
- Sherlock Gnomes
- Tito and the Birds
Best Foreign Language Film
My Current Picks
- Capharnaum
- Cold War
- Roma
- Shoplifters
- Sunset
Runners-Up
- Border
- Burning
- The Guilty
- I Am Not a Witch
- Never Look Away
Dark Horses
- Birds of Passage
- The Cakemaker
- Girl
- The Heiresses
- I Do Not Care If We Go Down In History As Barbarians
Best Documentary Feature
My Current Picks
- Free Solo
- Love Gilda
- RBG
- Three Identical Strangers
- Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Runners-Up
- Fahrenheit 11/9
- Jane Fonda in Five Acts
- The King
- Minding the Gap
- Quincy
Dark Horses
- The Biggest Little Farm
- Hal
- Monrovia, Indiana
- McQueen
- On Her Shoulders
All Short Film Categories
To Be Determined
